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Checkmate Wall Street: Tesla beats analyst estimates again




Tesla again blew past analyst estimates when it announced its first quarter production and delivery results last Friday, April 2.


Wall Street was expecting the automaker to deliver some 168k vehicles, according to FactSet, for a quarter that is typically seasonally weak for the company.


Tesla smashed those expectations last week, announcing it had produced 180k vehicles and delivered 185k during the first quarter of 2021.


Tesla attributed this performance to the ‘strong reception’ of its Model 3/Y in China. It was also noted that its higher margin model X/S had been received well in the region, adding that the company was in the early stages of ramping up production of this model. Despite that commentary, Model X/S deliveries are significantly down from the year prior.


Year-to-date the Tesla share price is down close to 10%.


Whatever you make of it, this beat again shows the danger of underestimating Elon Musk. Shorts have lost billions betting against the company over the years, and despite an extreme valuation, the stock has continued to rise (though is down YTD).


While we love innovators at Jaaims – this doesn’t mean we’re willing to accept everything Tesla does at face value. To be sure, competition is heating up – with the likes of Volkswagen recently saying they were poised to produce 1 million electric and hybrid vehicles in 2021. In 2020 Volkswagen tripled its EV sales, selling 231k all-electric vehicles in total.


Mind you, Volkswagen isn’t Tesla’s only competition: in fact, co-host of The Market Crunch Tui thinks that Daimler and Mercedes will be some of the key players to take on Tesla in the coming years. We discussed these competitive dynamics as part of our latest Market Crunch Podcast, which is released every Monday, 5:30PM. Click here to watch it for yourself now.


Ultimately, at over 1000x earnings, the market seems to be buying a Tesla that doesn’t exist and may never. The Tesla the tech giant with tech margins; the Tesla the robotaxi play; and the Tesla the decentralised energy company, whatever that means.


In non-Tesla news, Jaaims realised another mammoth winner last week, booking a gain of 29.20% on Barclays PLC. Plus, our Smart Portfolio has currently returned 24.50% since inception.

Click here to learn more about our performance here.